[SMM Analysis] Global Tin Market Faces Changes: China's Tin Ore Import Structure Adjusts, Indonesia's Refined Tin Exports Show "Growth and Concerns" Simultaneously

Tin ore imports, China's cumulative tin ore imports from January to August reached 82,676 mt in physical content, down 28.6% YoY from 115,811 mt in physical content in the same period last year. Imports from Myanmar plummeted to only 16,248 mt in physical content, with a YoY decline of 74.9%. As a major tin ore supplier to China, Myanmar's sharp production decline has significantly impacted China's tin ore supply structure. In contrast, tin ore supply from Africa saw substantial growth, with the DRC and Nigeria supplying 33,615 mt in physical content from January to August, up 22.7% YoY from 27,403 mt, becoming an important incremental source of China's tin ore imports.

Refined tin trade, China's tin imports in August were 1,261 mt, down 41.1% MoM and 29.0% YoY; exports were 964 mt, down 8.0% MoM but up 13.8% YoY.

In Indonesia, the world's largest refined tin exporter, refined tin exports in August 2025 totaled 3,227 mt, down 50% YoY and 14.9% MoM. There were 13 smelters exporting in August, with shipments showing a clear tiered distribution: 3 smelters shipped 300-700 mt, 4 shipped 200-300 mt, and 6 shipped below 200 mt. By export market, shipments to China increased 90% MoM to 1,027.33 mt, while shipments to Singapore decreased 41.6% MoM to 745.5 mt, and to India decreased 21.2% MoM to 375.7 mt. From January to August 2025, Indonesia's cumulative refined tin exports reached 32,690 mt, up 33.5% YoY, indicating a gradual recovery in Indonesia's supply capability in the global refined tin market.

Uncertainties in Indonesia's tin supply will have multiple direct impacts on the tin market: Policy side, after the RKAB approval cycle adjustment, enterprises need to resubmit documents in October 2025, with actual approvals potentially delayed to early 2026 and shipments postponed to February-March, which may lead to periodic tightening of global tin supply in the short term; Enterprise side, leading Indonesian smelters suspended exports in July-August due to mining license renewals, reducing tin ingot exports. Although licenses have now been renewed and normal shipments are expected by month-end September with exports rising, the earlier supply gap may still exacerbate short-term supply-demand tightness. Overall, these uncertainties may drive periodic fluctuations in tin prices, while making market expectations for subsequent Indonesian tin supply more cautious. For more in-depth analysis on tin import and export situations and market dynamics, welcome to attend the 2025 SMM (15th) Tin Industry Chain Summit on October 22-24 to exchange and discuss trends with industry peers.